In its annual Outlook for Energy projections of future energy use and demand, oil giant ExxonMobil is predicting a 30% increase in global demand from 2010-2040 based on demographic trends and the expectation that rapid, economic growth in developing nations will contribute to a doubling of worldwide economic output in the next three decades.
In developed nations, energy demand is forecast to remain roughly flat during the period, based upon an average annual economic growth rate of 2% and anticipated gains in energy efficiency.
Economic growth developing countries is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.5%, more than offsetting improvements in efficiency and leading to a 60% increase in energy demand. Even with such relatively rapid growth, energy use per capita would remain well below that of developed nations.
Not surprisingly, perhaps, ExxonMobil sees oil remaining the top energy source through 2040, with demand for liquid fuels increasing as much as 70% in developing nations. Worldwide, a 60% increase in demand for natural gas would outstrip demand for coal as the number two source by 2025.
In order to meet rising demand for both oil and natural gas, the company cites increased reliance on unconventional sources, including the controversial exploitation of oil sands and shale formations.
Most controversial may be the report’s prediction that, despite continued reliance on fossil fuels to provide 60% of the world’s energy needs — up from 55% today — carbon emissions will level off sometime around 2030 and decline through 2040 due primarily to the increased use of natural gas in place of coal.
