The world’s population is increasing at an unprecedented rate. But it may surprise you to know that population is not increasing everywhere in the world. Could the world be headed toward Zero Population Growth (ZPG)?
Despite the current continued population upsurge, it is projected by most population research agencies that the population rate will slow down quite considerably and may even see ZPG by the end of this century.
Most people understand that the population does not increase everywhere. But why is the population increasing in some areas and decreasing in others? To answer this question it is first important to get some basic facts on the population of the world and some sample countries.
While the exact population is nearly impossible to figure out, groups such as the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau frequently make estimates, with a general current population range between 6.90-6.95 billion. In considering the recent population trends since 1950, it can be seen that the percent the population has grown has risen and fallen throughout the years; however the overall trends show a significant population growth (see World Population Increase chart).
Now we can look at population trends in various parts of the world for the previous year. Of the 230 countries for which data is available, 196 countries had a positive population growth and 34 countries showed a decline. The ten countries that have the highest growth rate include (in order from greatest to least growth): Zimbabwe, Niger, Uganda, Turks and Caicos Islands, Burundi, United Arab Emirates, Gaza Strip, Ethiopia, West Sahara and Burkina Faso. Seven out of these top ten countries are located in Africa. The ten countries that showed the greatest rate of decline include Northern Mariana Islands, Cook Islands, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Estonia, Ukraine, Latvia, Russia, and Serbia, from most to least decline. (See Population Change Comparison chart for comparison of these countries.)
With this information and with how the population changed, we can now look at why the population changed the way it has. First of all, the countries which show the greatest population increase had a birth rate that ranged from 15.87 to 50.54 per thousand people, with an average of 35.85 births per thousand people.
Then where the countries had declined in population, the birth rate ranged from 8.32 to 20.69 births per thousand people, with an average of 11.29 births per thousand.
One cannot compare the birth rate of countries without also looking at each country’s death rate. The death rates for the countries with an increasing population range from 2.06 up to 14.11 deaths per thousand people, with an average of 8.98 deaths per thousand people. The death rates of the other countries ranged from 3.28 to 16.04 deaths per thousand with an average of 11.24 deaths per thousand people. (See Chart: “Birth Rates vs. Death Rates per Country.”)
Africa, the origin of Homo sapiens (today’s modern humans), is home to the most countries bearing the highest growth rates in the world. In many African countries, life expectancy is not very high due to lack of sufficient food and water, casualties of war, and/or disease. In some of the more developed nations, food, water and medicine are much easier to access, giving those citizens longer life spans.
Human deaths in various levels of human conflict, including war, civil unrest or other such events is inevitable, no matter what country you live in. The difference is developed countries have more stable governments which lead to a lower likelihood of revolt, civil war or other types of terrorism. In the case of civil war, it doesn’t matter which side the casualties are from, they still affect the population of the country.
According to the World Bank Development Education Program, African women tend to have more children due to a fear that many of their babies won’t survive long enough to reach the age of reproduction (Source: World Bank Development Education Program, “World Population Growth”). Thirty nine out of the fifty-five African nations are considered to be high-fertility countries, or where women have, on average, more than 1.5 daughters. This can be compared to the low-fertility countries, which include every country in Europe except Ireland and Iceland, in which woman have an average of less than one daughter. This could well explain why seven of the ten countries that had the most growth are on the continent of Africa, because more children that can reproduce are being born in Africa than in Europe.
While most developed nations are approaching, or have already reached zero population growth, the developing nations are the source of the global population explosion. Still, trends indicate that the fertility rate of the developing nations will shift toward a more balanced growth rate, bringing the total world population closer to ZPG. It is not possible to say this for sure, but the next fifty years will give us a much clearer understanding of this trend.
Connor Harmon is a Senior GT Honors Student at Marriotts Ridge High School, Maryland, USA
Sources
- United Nations Population Division
- United States Census Bureau International Database
- CIA World Factbook
- World Bank, Development Education Program for Sustainable Growth
