Oil will remain the world’s main source of energy for many years to come, even under the most optimistic of assumptions about the development of alternative technology, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). But the sources of oil, the cost of producing it and the prices that consumers will have to pay for it are extremely uncertain. According to the IEA’s executive director, Nobuo Tanaka, the time is now for a global collaborative energy revolution to ensure future energy security and stability.
“We cannot let the financial and economic crisis delay the policy action that is urgently needed to ensure secure energy supplies and to curtail rising emissions of greenhouse gases,†Mr. Tanaka said in London last November with the release of new world energy data from the IEA’s flagship World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008 publication. “We must usher in a global energy revolution by improving energy efficiency and increasing the deployment of low-carbon energy.”
“Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable – environmentally, economically and sociallyâ€, said Mr. Tanaka. “They can and must be altered.”
World primary energy demand is projected to grow by 1.6% per year on average between now and 2030 – a trend that has existed since 2006. This is slower than projected last year, mainly due to the impact of the economic slowdown, prospects for higher energy prices and some new policy initiatives. Demand for oil rises from 85 million barrels per day now to 106 million barrels per day in 2030 – 10 million barrels less than projected last year.
WEO 2008 reports that the demand for coal will rise more than any other fuel in absolute terms, accounting for over a third of the increase in energy use. Modern renewables will grow the most rapidly, overtaking gas to become the second-largest source of electricity soon after 2010. China and India account for over half of incremental energy demand to 2030 while the Middle East emerges as a major new demand center. The share of the world’s energy consumed in cities grows from two-thirds to almost three-quarters in 2030.
Oil will remain the world’s main source of energy for many years to come, even under the most optimistic of assumptions about the development of alternative technology. But the sources of oil, the cost of producing it and the prices that consumers will have to pay for it are uncertain.
“One thing is certainâ€, said Mr. Tanaka, “while market imbalances will feed volatility, the era of cheap oil is overâ€.
